It is an explosion that cannot be contained easily. One that is going to change the world as we know it. We are talking about the population explosion that has quadrupled in the last century. From 1.8 billion people in 1915, the world population has grown to 7.3 billion people today (recent estimate by the UN). By 2050, it is estimated that world population will grow to 9.7 billion.
This growth and rising incomes combined are expected to drive the demand for food globally. We are not talking about just a marginal rise. Food demand is expected to go up by 59% – 98% by 2050. Agricultural markets will need to be reshaped in ways not seen before. Food supply in the future will be characterised by lesser inputs, less waste and reduced environmental impact.
Farmers will have only two choices. First, improve crop productivity by acquiring more land or boost productivity on existing agricultural lands by opting for new methods such as precision farming.
Acquiring more land may no longer be a viable option given the ecological and social trade-offs which can be high, especially in the tropics.
Today, the amount of crop harvested per unit of land, i.e., crop yields are not enough to meet the forecasted demand for food. In the future, farmers will have to overcome more challenges such as the climate change, urbanisation and lack of investment. Not to mention water scarcity, rising global temperatures and extreme weather. Factors that will have a long term impact on crop yields.
Several major agricultural regions worldwide are expected to reel from the devastating effects of these factors. Regions that are close to the Equator. Mato Grosso, a Brazilian state, a key agricultural region will produce 18%-23% lesser soy and corn by 2050 due to climate change. Extreme heat is also expected to result in a substantial decline in agricultural output in Midwestern U.S. and Eastern Australia. Two globally important regions.
Several agricultural regions, on the other hand, may initially benefit from climate change. China, Canada and Russia will have to deal with longer and warmer growing seasons. A top grain exporter, Russia will have the opportunity to boost production potential which is currently untapped due to substantial crop yield crops and abandoned farmland (40 million hectares, larger than Germany). The country, therefore, does have a great opportunity when it comes to feeding the world. This, however, requires institutional reform and significant investments in agriculture.
How do we make sure food reaches places where there is high demand? Logistics, transportation, storage and processing will come to play a crucial role in the future. While currently big food companies generally influence food consumption, trading companies will play a greater role when it comes to food security. As they will predominantly ensure the availability of staple foods and ingredients used by big foods. Trading companies also ensure that seasonal grains and oilseeds and soft commodities are available through the year.
However, getting only a few regions to increase output and traders to matter match supply and demand will not help double food production or meet food demand by 2050. It will require seamless collaboration between businesses and governments to create a sustainable global food balance.
Getting farmers to increase productivity without acquiring more land calls for technology to play a key role. Only then can we prevent overstressing resources, depleting groundwater and destroying fertile soil through the overuse of fertiliser.
Governments and agribusinesses engaged with farmers need to take the initiative when it comes to getting farmers to start using technology. While the benefits of leveraging technology in agriculture are numerous, farmers either lack awareness or are wary.
Learn how FrontalRain Technologies can help boost productivity: http://www.frontalrain.com/our-products/